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2488.HK

Launch Tech Company Limited

Price Targets & DCF

HKD
Current price
6.83
DCF (Our base case) 12.98 +90.1%

Our base case: no analyst estimates for this company, so first-year revenue growth (13.3%) fades to the long-term rate over the ten projected years, discounted at the market cost of equity (9.9%, risk-free rate + equity risk premium).

Reverse DCF — what the price already assumes: to be worth today's quote, the company would have to grow revenue ~-9.3%/yr for the next decade with every other assumption unchanged.

These figures are point estimates: a small change in growth or in the discount rate moves them materially, so read them as a reference and not as a target.

Quality scores

as of 11 Sep 2026
Altman Z-Score
4.14
Safe zone
Piotroski F-Score
7 / 9
Strong
MOAT Score
5 / 10
Developing
Composite Rating
A+
3M ago: A+ =1Y ago: A+ =
Overall Score
4 / 5
High
3M ago: 4/5 =1Y ago: 4/5 =
DCF Score
5 / 5
High
3M ago: 5/5 =1Y ago: 5/5 =
ROE Score
5 / 5
High
3M ago: 5/5 =1Y ago: 5/5 =
ROA Score
5 / 5
High
3M ago: 5/5 =1Y ago: 5/5 =
D/E Score
3 / 5
Moderate leverage
3M ago: 3/5 =1Y ago: 4/5 ▼
P/E Score
4 / 5
High
3M ago: 4/5 =1Y ago: 3/5 ▲
P/Book Score
2 / 5
Medium
3M ago: 2/5 =1Y ago: 2/5 =
Where the Composite Rating stands
  • Composite Rating A+ — better than 96% of the market (38,509 rated companies)
  • Better than 93% of its industry (Auto - Parts, 735 rated companies)
  • Industry median Overall Score: 3/5 (this company: 4/5)
SS-A+AA-B+BB-C+CC-D+

All rated companies (38,509)

SS-A+AA-B+BB-C+CC-D+

Auto - Parts (735 rated companies)

Altman Z-Score breakdown
  • Working capital / Assets 0.224 × 1.2 +0.27
  • Retained earnings / Assets 0.120 × 1.4 +0.17
  • EBIT / Assets 0.298 × 3.3 +0.98
  • Market cap / Liabilities 1.850 × 0.6 +1.11
  • Revenue / Assets 1.607 × 1.0 +1.61

Total Z-Score: 4.14

Operational MOAT
✗ Below peers
Score breakdown Annual 0/3+Quarterly 3/3+Structural 2/4
  • ✓
    Revenue growth Auto - Parts: +7.8%
    +12.1% ★ Q2'26: +7.2% (vs Q2'24)
  • ✓
    EPS growth Auto - Parts: +18.0%
    +1.2% Q2'26: +16.2% (vs Q2'24)
  • ✓
    FCF margin FCF growth · Auto - Parts: +53.1%
    +19.2% Q2'26: +11.9% (vs Q2'24)
  • ✗
    EBIT margin Auto - Parts: +7.5%
    +17.1% ★ Q2'26: +19.1% (vs Q2'24)
  • ✓
    ROIC Auto - Parts: +6.4%
    +38.6% ★ Q2'26: +76.4% (vs Q2'24)
  • ✓
    Share dilution Auto - Parts: +0.0%
    -0.5% ★ Q2'26: -1.4% (vs Q2'24)
  • ✓
    Debt / EBITDA Net debt/EBITDA · Auto - Parts: 0.27×
    0.69× ★ Q2'26: 0.50× (vs Q2'24)

Valuation Multiples

From To
as of 7 Sep 2026

Price Forecast (3Y)

From To as of 11 Sep 2026
Model
Adjust
P/E
Theoretical Return — If Invested Today

* These projections are based on analyst consensus estimates and user-defined valuation multiples. This table is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DCF Interactive Model (UFCF)

Projection years:
Market assumptions
▶ WACC components (optional)
Ke (Cost of Equity) = Rf + β (-0.31) × ERP
WACC = 90% × Ke + 10% × Kd (5.2%) × (1−t)

Modifying these values recalculates WACC automatically.

Business assumptions
—
Base case
Intrinsic value (base): HKD 12.98 Current price: HKD 6.83
Enterprise Value: — Equity Value: — Terminal Value: — TV as % of EV: —

The sliders start from our base case, built on the latest reported accounts and today's market conditions. Move them to test your own assumptions: the value per share above is only as good as the assumptions behind it.

Consensus Estimates

CNY as of 31 Dec 2025
Metric Dec 2003
5 Rev. Ana.
5 EPS Ana. 		Dec 2004
5 Rev. Ana.
6 EPS Ana. 		Dec 2005
actual 		Dec 2006
actual 		Dec 2007
actual 		Dec 2008
actual 		Dec 2009
actual 		Dec 2010
actual 		Dec 2018
actual 		Dec 2019
actual 		Dec 2024
actual 		Dec 2025
actual 		Dec 2026
1 Rev. Ana.
Revenue
230.43M
213.97M – 234.85M
312.82M
274.88M – 339.68M
+35.8% YoY
342.59M
est: 337.46M (+1.5%)
304.21M
est: 360.25M (-15.6%)
412.46M
est: 443.60M (-7.0%)
438.55M
est: 513.38M (-14.6%)
462.44M
est: 608.51M (-24.0%)
661.11M
est: 731.95M (-9.7%)
1.05B
est: 1.09B (-3.6%)
941.71M
est: 1.23B (-23.7%)
1.88B
est: 1.88B (+0.3%)
2.11B
est: 2.21B (-4.7%)
2.72B
2.72B – 2.72B
+23.0% YoY
EBITDA
157.60M
130.62M – 177.40M
136.85M
131.81M – 143.00M
-13.2% YoY
34.25M
est: 77.46M (-55.8%)
54.45M
est: 106.83M (-49.0%)
118.77M
est: 100.29M (+18.4%)
80.42M
est: 149.21M (-46.1%)
125.67M
est: 76.05M (+65.2%)
179.02M
est: 223.52M (-19.9%)
166.79M
1.86M
410.22M
396.81M
 —
EBIT
127.24M
100.25M – 147.03M
109.95M
104.90M – 116.10M
-13.6% YoY
14.20M
est: 57.40M (-75.3%)
28.37M
est: 80.75M (-64.9%)
84.61M
est: 66.14M (+27.9%)
47.14M
est: 115.93M (-59.3%)
87.46M
est: 37.84M (+131.1%)
134.28M
est: 178.79M (-24.9%)
79.55M
-113.00M
362.47M
361.26M
 —
Net Income
87.91M
66.59M – 103.55M
74.25M
70.27M – 79.11M
-15.5% YoY
37.13M
est: 45.35M (-18.1%)
41.13M
est: 63.79M (-35.5%)
61.35M
est: 50.46M (+21.6%)
12.83M
est: 70.27M (-81.7%)
62.05M
est: 14.05M (+341.5%)
105.09M
est: 127.90M (-17.8%)
58.91M
-136.93M
339.51M
344.26M
—
— – —
SG&A
24.47M
22.72M – 24.93M
67.04M
63.44M – 71.43M
+174.0% YoY
114.37M
est: 94.02M (+21.6%)
102.62M
est: 126.98M (-19.2%)
118.87M
est: 125.96M (-5.6%)
133.22M
est: 136.31M (-2.3%)
112.75M
est: 146.25M (-22.9%)
130.56M
est: 78.10M (+67.2%)
187.98M
est: 115.44M (+62.8%)
195.58M
est: 131.03M (+49.3%)
141.96M
est: 162.12M (-12.4%)
151.22M
est: 191.28M (-20.9%)
235.20M
235.20M – 235.20M
+23.0% YoY
EPS
0.21
0.16 – 0.25
0.22
0.16 – 0.29
+3.6% YoY
0.12
est: 0.18 (-34.8%)
0.12
est: 0.15 (-22.2%)
0.18
est: 0.20 (-11.6%)
0.04
est: 0.22 (-83.9%)
0.17
est: 0.26 (-33.4%)
0.29
est: 0.31 (-5.3%)
0.16
-0.32
0.82
0.83
—
— – —

Revenue flow

as of 30 Jun 2026

Revenue by geography

No recent geographic revenue data on file.

Revenue by segment

From To

Revenue composition

No recent revenue breakdown data on file.

Analyst Consensus

as of 1 Jan 2025

No current analyst coverage on file. Last available split: Jan 2025.

Analyst Ratings Over Time

as of 1 Jan 2025

Ratings History

as of 11 Sep 2026
Time at A or better: 75% over 5Y · 78% over 10Y Current rating A+ since 28 May 2026 (106 days)

Rating changes

as of 11 Sep 2026

79 moves on record since 202022 in the last year

Date Rating Overall What moved
14 Aug 2026 A+ 5→4/5 P/B 3→2
13 Aug 2026 A+ 5/5 D/E 4→3P/B 2→3
2 Jul 2026 A+ 4→5/5 D/E 3→4
28 May 2026 A→A+ 4/5 DCF 4→5
19 May 2026 A+→A 5→4/5 P/B 4→2
11 May 2026 A+ 5/5 DCF 5→4D/E 2→3
6 May 2026 A+ 4→5/5 DCF 4→5
5 May 2026 A+ 5→4/5 DCF 5→4
4 May 2026 A+ 4→5/5 DCF 4→5
1 Apr 2026 S-→A+ 5→4/5 D/E 4→2
26 Mar 2026 A→S- 4→5/5 DCF 5→4P/E 3→4P/B 1→4
20 Mar 2026 A 4/5 D/E 3→4
12 Mar 2026 A 4/5 P/B 2→1
6 Feb 2026 A+→A 4/5 D/E 4→3
2 Jan 2026 A→A+ 4/5 D/E 3→4
12 Dec 2025 A 4/5 D/E 2→3
10 Dec 2025 A 4/5 P/E 4→3
4 Dec 2025 A 4/5 P/E 3→4
24 Nov 2025 A 4/5 P/E 4→3
8 Oct 2025 A 4/5 D/E 3→2P/E 3→4
6 Oct 2025 A 4/5 D/E 2→3P/E 4→3
2 Oct 2025 A+→A 4/5 D/E 4→2P/E 3→4
20 Aug 2025 A+ 5→4/5 P/E 4→3
6 Aug 2025 C+→A+ 2→5/5 ROE 1→5ROA 1→5P/E 1→4P/B 1→2
21 Jul 2025 C+ 2/5 DCF 4→5
18 Jul 2025 C+ 2/5 DCF 5→4
17 Jul 2025 C+ 2/5 DCF 4→5
16 Jul 2025 C+ 2/5 DCF 5→4
2 Jul 2025 C+ 2/5 D/E 3→4
14 Apr 2025 C+ 2/5 DCF 4→5D/E 4→3
7 Apr 2025 A→C+ 4→2/5 DCF 3→4ROE 5→1ROA 5→1D/E 3→4P/E 4→1P/B 3→1
1 Apr 2025 A 4/5 D/E 4→3P/E 3→4
31 Mar 2025 A+→A 4/5 P/E 4→3
18 Mar 2025 A+ 5→4/5 DCF 4→3
17 Mar 2025 A→A+ 4→5/5 DCF 1→4
12 Mar 2025 A-→A 4/5 P/E 3→4
11 Mar 2025 A+→A- 4/5 DCF 4→1
10 Mar 2025 A+ 5→4/5 P/E 4→3
4 Mar 2025 A→A+ 4→5/5 D/E 3→4P/E 3→4
28 Feb 2025 A+→A 5→4/5 D/E 4→3P/E 4→3
26 Feb 2025 A+ 4→5/5 D/E 3→4
24 Feb 2025 A+ 5→4/5 D/E 4→3
17 Feb 2025 A→A+ 4→5/5 D/E 3→4P/E 3→4
14 Feb 2025 A+→A 4/5 P/E 4→3
6 Feb 2025 A→A+ 4/5 P/E 3→4
3 Feb 2025 A 4/5 DCF 5→4P/B 2→3
28 Jan 2025 A 4/5 DCF 4→5P/B 3→2
27 Jan 2025 A+→A 4/5 D/E 4→3
17 Jan 2025 A→A+ 4/5 DCF 5→4D/E 3→4P/B 2→3
2 Jan 2025 A+→A 4/5 DCF 4→5ROE 4→5P/E 4→3P/B 4→2
18 Dec 2024 A+ 5→4/5 DCF 5→4
6 Dec 2024 S-→A+ 5/5 ROE 5→4
6 Nov 2024 S- 5/5 P/B 5→4
4 Nov 2024 A+→S- 5/5 ROE 4→5P/B 4→5
7 Oct 2024 A→A+ 4→5/5 DCF 3→5
6 Aug 2024 A 4/5 ROA 4→5
29 Jul 2024 A 4/5 DCF 4→3
26 Jul 2024 A 4/5 P/E 5→4P/B 2→4
25 Jul 2024 A-→A 4/5 DCF 3→4
10 Jul 2024 A→A- 4/5 DCF 4→3
9 Jul 2024 A-→A 4/5 DCF 3→4
3 Jul 2024 A→A- 4/5 DCF 4→3
2 Jul 2024 A+→A 4/5 ROE 5→4ROA 5→4
12 Jun 2024 A-→A+ 4/5 P/E 2→5
8 May 2024 A- 4/5 P/B 1→2
6 May 2024 A- 4/5 P/B 2→1
26 Apr 2024 A- 4/5 ROE 4→5
23 Apr 2024 B+→A- 3→4/5 ROE 3→4ROA 4→5P/E 3→2
17 Apr 2024 A-→B+ 4→3/5 DCF 5→4
12 Apr 2024 B+→A- 3→4/5 DCF 4→5
2 Apr 2024 A→B+ 4→3/5 DCF 5→4D/E 2→3P/E 4→3P/B 4→2
21 Mar 2024 A-→A 4/5 DCF 4→5
18 Mar 2024 A→A- 4/5 DCF 5→4
5 Mar 2024 A+→A 4/5 ROE 4→3ROA 5→4
29 Feb 2024 B+→A+ 3→4/5 ROE 2→4ROA 2→5P/B 3→4
22 Jan 2024 B-→B+ 3/5 ROE 1→2ROA 1→2D/E 3→2P/E 3→4P/B 2→3
3 Jul 2023 B- 2→3/5 D/E 4→3P/E 2→3P/B 1→2
25 Apr 2023 A+→B- 5→2/5 ROE 3→1ROA 3→1P/E 5→2P/B 5→1
25 Mar 2021 A-→A+ 4→5/5 P/E 1→5

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About me

Javier Bernal-Polo